Transition paths of marine debris and the stability of the garbage patches

Area of Science:

• Oceanography
• Environmental Science
• Data Science

Background:

• Marine debris poses a significant environmental threat.
• Understanding the movement of plastic waste is crucial for effective cleanup.

Purpose of the Study:

• To infer reactive pathways of floating marine debris trajectories.
• To identify pollution sources and potential targets for ocean cleanup efforts.

Main Methods:

• Applied transition path theory (TPT) to a pollution-aware Markov chain model.
• Utilized satellite-tracked undrogued buoy data from NOAA's Global Drifter Program.
• Adapted standard TPT for open physical systems.

Main Results:

• Unveiled reactive pollution routes connecting coastlines to marine garbage patches.
• Constrained a probable pollution source for the Great Pacific garbage patch.
• Characterized the Indian Ocean gyre's weakness in trapping plastic waste.
• Identified subtropical gyres exporting debris to coastlines during intense winds.

Conclusions:

• The identified pathways offer alternative targets for ocean cleanup operations.
• The study provides insights into the dynamics of marine plastic pollution.
• Findings can inform strategies for mitigating the impact of ocean debris.