Impact of Scoring First on Match Outcome in the Chinese Football Super League

Area of Science:

• Sports Science
• Football Analytics
• Performance Analysis

Background:

• Understanding factors influencing football match outcomes is crucial for tactical development.
• The impact of scoring first on game results requires detailed investigation within specific leagues.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the effect of the first goal on match outcomes in the Chinese Football Super League (CSL).
• To determine how factors like goal timing, location, and team budget influence game results when a team scores first.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of 1,116 Chinese Football Super League (CSL) matches from 2014-2018.
• Utilized descriptive analysis and generalized linear models (multinomial logit and Poisson models).
• Examined match outcomes, goal differences, first goal timing, location, and team budgets (categorized as high/low).

Main Results:

• Teams scoring first achieved a 66.31% win rate, 20.70% draw rate, and 12.99% loss rate.
• Home teams and higher-budget teams showed significantly better outcomes and goal differences.
• Each minute closer to the end of the match when scoring the first goal increased the win probability by 0.0028.

Conclusions:

• Scoring the first goal provides a substantial advantage in CSL matches.
• Team budget and home advantage are key factors correlating with improved performance after scoring first.
• The timing of the first goal is a critical predictor of match success.