Projecting the demand for institutional care by the aged in Singapore in the year 2000

Area of Science:

• Gerontology
• Health Services Research
• Demography

Background:

• Rapidly aging populations present challenges for healthcare systems.
• Increased demand for institutional care among the elderly is a significant concern.
• Accurate forecasting is essential for resource allocation and policy planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and report a procedure for projecting the demand for institutional care by the aged population in Singapore.
• To provide a framework for estimating current and future needs for elderly care services.

Main Methods:

• The procedure involves estimating current demand using a model based on functional and residential status.
• Future demand projection utilizes a 3x3 matrix of models, incorporating low, medium, and high scenarios.
• Sub-models refine projections based on potential changes in disease load and care needs within functional status groups.

Main Results:

• The study presents a systematic procedure for demand projection.
• The methodology accounts for demographic, health, and socio-economic factors influencing care needs.
• The projection models offer varying degrees of expected change in disease burden and service utilization.

Conclusions:

• The developed procedure provides a robust method for forecasting aged care demand.
• Accurate projections are vital for effective planning and management of elderly care services.
• This approach can inform policy decisions to meet the future needs of an aging population.