[The prediction of the minimum incidence of AIDS in Spain for the period 1992-1995]

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health

Context:

• Estimating Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) incidence in Spain.
• Utilizing data from the National Register up to June 1992.
• Accounting for reporting delays in diagnosed cases since July 1989.

Purpose:

• To forecast minimum AIDS incidence in Spain between 1992 and 1995.
• To perform back-calculation for all cases and transmission modes.
• To project trends assuming no new Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infections post-1991.

Summary:

• Over 38,000 AIDS cases are projected in Spain from 1981 to 1995.
• A rise in minimum AIDS incidence is forecast for 1992-1995.
• Exceptions to the rising trend include blood product recipients and children of at-risk mothers.

Impact:

• Forecasted incidence may be lower than real-world figures due to uncounted new infections and underreporting.
• Provides crucial data for public health planning and resource allocation.
• Highlights the ongoing challenge of managing the AIDS epidemic.